| 摘要: |
| 本文测算了2000~2012年中国与32个国家的虚假贸易规模，结果表明，虚假贸易规模从2000年的156.7亿美元增加到2012年的4，565.9亿美元，超过贸易总规模的10%，其中进出口伪报规模呈现“U”型特征，复进口以及中国内地对香港地区的虚假贸易规模呈现逐步上升趋势，这与国内利率汇率尚未完全市场化、资本项目不完全可兑换以及其他因素有关，并对中国经济金融产生不利的影响。因此有必要通过转变监管方式，建立与国际接轨的贸易数据统计机制，提高存款利率的上限额度和人民币汇率的波幅以及转变经济发展方式来减少虚假贸易规模。 |
| 关键词: 虚假贸易 进出口伪报 复进口 转口贸易 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Research on the Calculation of False Trade and China’s Countermeasures |
| ZHANG Fang-bo |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper calculates the scale of false trade between China and other 32 countries from 2000 to 2012, whose conclusion denotes that the scale had been increasing up to 456.59 billion dollars from 15.67 billion dollar beyond 10% of the total trade scale. The scale of false reporting in import and export indicates a “U” type shape, and re-import trade and false trade from China to Hong Kong are both in a gradually rising trend, which can be explained by such that deposit rate and RMB exchange rate are still being controlled, RMB capital account is still unconverted, the trade statistics between countries are different, the micro-economic entities have strong motivations to chase interest and the evaluation mechanism of being oriental with GDP as a key indicator is accepted. Then, the negative effects of false trade are presented which includes that it can be harmful to the domestic financial ecology and restore the BOP, it stimulates the expansion of trade finance, it supplies a distorted incentive mechanism for the real economy and it can be resistance of transformation of economic development mode which is confronted with local government. Therefore, several effective measures should be taken to decrease the scale of false trade, which are that the regulatory approach should be changed, the international trade statistics mechanism be established, the up-limit of deposit rate and the fluctuation band of RMB foreign rate be elevated and the transformation of economic development mode be achieved. |
| Key words: false trade false reporting in import and export re-import trade re-export trade |
