| 摘要: |
| 设立自由贸易试验区是新形势下我国全面深化改革和扩大开放的战略举措。选取我国 20个省市季度数据，以上海、天津、广东和福建 4个自贸区为例，采用反事实分析法，通过对比自贸区政策实施前后地区经济反事实值与真实值差异，评估实施效果。结果发现，上海、广东、福建和天津自贸区的设立通过进出口以及投资等途径促进了各个省市 GDP的增长，且其结果具有相当的稳健性。这表明自贸区的设立促进了制度红利的释放，并且改革效应大于开放效应。 |
| 关键词: 自贸区 经济增长效应 反事实分析法 开放 改 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| The Regional Economic Growth Effect of Free Trade Zones:Opening or Reform? |
| XING Xiaobing,LEI Yingfei |
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| Abstract: |
| The establishment of the pilot free trade zones is a strategic measure to comprehensively deepen reform and expand opening-up under the new situation. Taking Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian as examples, this paper uses counterfactual analysis to compare the difference between the economic real and counterfactual value before and after the establishment of the free trade zones to evaluate their effect on the regional economic growth. The results show that the establishment of the Shanghai, Guangdong, Fujian and Tianjin free trade zones promote the growth of GDP by expanding the trade and investment volume. That means the establishment of the free trade zones releases“institutional dividend”, and the reform effect is greater than the opening effect. |
| Key words: free trade zone economic growth effect counterfactual analysis opening reform |
