| 摘要: |
| 利用 GTAP模型分别模拟分析 2018年初中美贸易摩擦的长期和短期经济影响，结果发现，中美两轮贸易加税全部实施，短期内美国对中国贸易逆差会减少约 295亿美元，美国对世界逆差减少 257亿美元，中国对世界顺差增加 108亿美元。此外，中国实际GDP、福利和就业率分别下降0.37%、503亿美元和 0.52%；美国分别下降0.28%、515亿美元和 0.38%。长期来看，中美宏观负面冲击在一定程度上均会得到缓解。在产业影响方面，中国弱夕阳产业、新兴产业部门分别在两轮贸易摩擦中受到较大冲击，农业部门普遍受益，夕阳产业部门影响不大，其中电子设备和机械设备等新兴产业产出均下降 1.14%。美国农业、夕阳产业在两轮贸易摩擦中负面影响较大，其中油菜籽和植物纤维产出分别下降 17.9%和 14.3%。总体而言，中美贸易摩擦对双方都带来较大冲击，而且其影响会随着摩擦的升级而扩大。 |
| 关键词: 贸易摩擦 关税 GTAP模型 经济影响 |
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| Analysis of Impacts of Sino-US Trade Frictions |
| XIAO Zhimin,YANG Jun |
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| Abstract: |
| In this paper, we use the GTAP model to simulate long-run and short-run economic impacts of Sino-US trade frictions in early 2018. The scenario results show that, in the short run, the U.S. trade deficit with China is expected to decline by $29.5 billion, while the U.S. trade deficit with the world will be reduced by about $25.7 billion, China’s surplus will increase by $10.8 billion. In addition, to China, the real GDP growth rate, welfare and employment rate will reduce by 0.37%, $50.3 billion and 0.52%, respectively. Those of the U.S. fall by 0.28%, $51.5 billion and 0.38% respectively. However, in the long run, the negative shocks will be relieved. In the view of industries, the friction will cause serious loss for the output of quasi-old industries and emerging industries in China, especially for electronic equipment, machinery and equipment, whose output will all decrease by 1.14%. Chinese agriculture industries will benefit from this friction and old industries will suffer little. The United States’ agriculture and old industries, such as oil seeds and plant-based fibers will suffer more damage and their output will decrease by 17.9% and 14.3%, respectively. In general, Sino-US trade frictions will exert great negative effects on both sides, and the effect will be more deeply felt with the escalation of friction. |
| Key words: trade frictions tariff GTAP model economic impact |
