主讲人：陆方文 教授 人民大学经济学院
主持人：李辉文 教授 上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院
时间：2021年05月17日周一下午，14:00-16:00
地点：上海对外经贸大学信息楼507会议室
主办：上海对外经贸大学国际经济与贸易系
主讲人简介：
陆方文，于2011年毕业于美国加州伯克利大学经济学博士，现任中国人民大学经济学院教授，2018年度教育部青年长江学者和国家自科基金优秀青年项目获得者。她擅长运用随机实验方法探讨行为经济学和发展经济学领域的热点难点问题，其研究成果发表在经济学、管理学和医学的顶尖学术期刊，其中包括《Journal of Development Economics》、《Journal of Labor Economics》、《Journal of Public Economics》 (2)、《Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization》、《Management Science》、《British Medical Journal》、《经济研究》等，并出版专著《随机实地实验：理论、方法和在中国的运用》。她的论文荣获“教育部第五届全国教育科学研究优秀成果奖”和“北京市第十四届哲学社会科学优秀成果奖”，并且被杰弗里·佩罗夫撰写的 《Microeconomics》和《Microeconomics: Theory and Applications with Calculus》等国际经典教科书引用。
报告摘要
more than one third of students prefer not to receive midterm test scores, which is associated with both the self-predicted midterm score and true score. Second, the prediction on midterm test score shows overconfidence on average while that on ranking show some underconfidence. Third, after receiving their test scores, the ex-ante overconfident students shift their base for ranking prediction from their predicted score to the actual score significant, while the under-confident students improve their prediction on the relative ranking. Forth, although the intervention shifts the predicted midterm ranking by 12 points among overconfident students, its impact on the prediction of the final exam score is only 4 points, which is not statistically significant. Last, among overconfident students, the intervention worsen their relative standing in the distribution of actual final exam scores. The deteriorating effect concentrates among the part of overconfident students who prefer to receive information on midterm test score.