| 摘要: |
| 本文针对中国棉花单位面积产量和进出口贸易问题，运用虚拟土地资源核算和灰色Verhulst模型预测法，对中国棉花贸易中的虚拟土地资源进行研究，并预测其发展趋势。研究结果表明:1992~2013年棉花贸易中中国是虚拟土地资源净进口国；中国棉花净进口虚拟土地资源占比较高；中国棉花进口即棉花贸易中的虚拟土地资源未来会继续增加，但是增长速率有所放缓。 |
| 关键词: 棉花贸易 虚拟土地资源 核算 预测 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:新疆自治区产学研联合培养研究生示范基地资助项目(项目编号:xjaucxy-yjs-20131038)；新疆人文社会科学重点研究基地干旱区农村发展研究中心项目资助(项目编号:XJEDU030113Y10)。 |
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| A Research on Virtual Land Resource Accounting and the Forecast of Cotton Trade |
| CAO Chong,MA Hui-lan |
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| Abstract: |
| According to China’s cotton yield per unit area and import and export trade, by use of virtual land resource accounting and grey Verhulst model forecasting method, this paper studies the virtual land resources of Chinese cotton trade, and predicts its development trend. The results show that: during 1992~2013, China boasts net import of cotton in respect of virtual land resource accounting; China’s cotton net import of virtual land resources accounted is relatively high. China’s cotton import virtual land cotton trade in the future will continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. |
| Key words: cotton trade virtual land resources accounting forecast |
